Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Declining rate of growth

The state’s population increased to 37 million on July 1, 2005 according to the State Department of Finance in their annual report released last week. Most of that growth was the result of 557,000 births and 178,000 new residents who migrated here from other states or other countries. Not everyone who was counted in 2004 was still around in 2005. We lost 237,000 people who died here and 29,000 who moved out of state permanently.
Our rate of growth is slowing. During the past 5 years the state grew by 2.9 million people for an overall rate of growth of 8.5 percent. Last year we gained a net increase of 500,000 people for a rate of 1.3 percent. It was the fourth year in a row that growth had slowed in Sacramento County, and the fifth consecutive year growth had slowed statewide.
Sacramento County reflected the state’s slower increase with only a 1.6 percent increase in population. It was the slowest rate of increase in the last 10 years according to the demographic research. Placer County reported a 3.43 percent increase and ranked third in the state for the rate of growth while El Dorado County had a 2.22 percent bump in population. Riverside County experienced the most amount of in-state growth with a 4.41 percent increase followed by Yuba County at 3.85.
Researchers are not sure why the rate of increase in population is declining. Our economy is booming, jobs are plentiful for those who want to work. Our weather is more temperate than most of the country. We have a beautiful ocean and majestic mountains. We have Hollywood and Disneyland and Napa and Yosemite. So why are not more people moving to the Golden State in search of gold?
Migration patterns follow the food source and while jobs have been plentiful in California so have they all over the country. The declining rate of population growth is not only occurring in California but across the entire country. As the county matures (average national age increases) there are fewer births and more deaths occurring.
It rained on our Rose Bowl Parade and fewer people are watching the Oscars. California has lost much of the glitz and glamorous mystic associated in the past. We are also getting a bad rap for congestion, traffic and pollution. And then there is San Francisco. When many people think of California they think of San Francisco or other great attractions like Los Angeles. It is frightening.
Our high housing prices doesn’t entice people to move here. It is having the reverse effect and causing many to move out of our state. The average price for a home in Sac is $350,000 in Dallas it is $250,000. Drive a few miles outside Sacramento to Placer or El Dorado County and the average price of a home goes up $150,000. Drive outside Dallas and the price of a home declines $100,000.
A slower rate of growth isn’t all bad. It allows us to catch up on a few things that need to be done like plug the leaking levees and fix a few pot-holes. Economic opportunities have been driving the rate of growth in California since gold was discovered down the road in Coloma in 1849. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if in the future it was the quality of life that attract people to move here and not just the quantity? Let’s all work on that.

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