Absent from NAR convention
I skipped the National Association of Realtors (NAR) national convention held last week in Las Vegas. I had the time but not the inclination. After 30+ years in the real estate business, I have been to more conventions, seminars, work sessions, retreats, and out of town meeting than I care to repeat. I have been to at least five conventions in Vegas dating back to 1977. When there were $2 Black Jack tables, holding a convention in Vegas could be a distraction from attending all the meetings and work-sessions. I suspect that today’s $10 minimum tables are less distractive. Washington DC in the spring of 1984 was a nice place for a convention. Hawaii was a great place for a winter trip. Seattle is beautiful in the summer. The fall colors in the Napa Valley this weekend was pretty nice and less expensive.
NAR keeps me informed of the latest developments in the real estate market and here are some highlights from last week’s convention.
The NAR's newly appointed chief economist announced that while home prices are down almost two percent this year, many areas of the country including Salt Lake City and Austin, Texas, are seeing double-digit appreciation and other areas "from the Rocky Mountain states to Appalachia," have undervalued home prices.
NAR released the results of its 2007 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Typically released in late summer, this year the annual report found that for-sale-by-owner transactions remain at record lows at 12 percent, the same percentage as in 2006.
NAR announced that the Pending Home Sales Index for September rose 0.2 percent to a reading of 85.7 from an index of 85.5 in August. It was 20.4 percent lower than the September 2006 level of 107.6. “Even with relatively low fourth quarter sales, 2007 will be the fifth highest year on record for existing-home sales. The median existing-home price in 2007 will have fallen by less than 2 percent from an all-time high set in 2006,” Yun said. Managing Director of Public Affairs Lucien Salvant pointed out to Realty Times that the Pending Home Index is forward-looking and becomes irrelevant as soon as sales are reported, which is one reason he among other NAR leadership is frustrated with media who overplay negative statistics and discount favorable numbers in order to scare consumers.
NAR leadership, including outgoing President Pat V. Combs performed a spoof on the hit TV show CSI, "dispatching her trusted advisors" to find out why homebuyers are "staying on the fence" despite "solid U.S. economic performance. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, incoming President Dick Gaylord and others "reported" back that other national sales downturns were driven by broad economic problems, but not this year. Despite a "solid" economy, sales are slower but will still reach a fifth-year record, and home prices are remaining at near record highs. This suggests that the national media, misled "by a few vocal but misinformed analysts, have been painting the U.S. housing markets in the clutches of a meltdown, even though the facts paint a very different picture."
In addition, NAR launched a new campaign targeting buyers, urging them to get the facts. For example, markets are local, the small decline in home prices nationwide is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation, and that subprimes is only about 10 percent of loans but are 40 percent of current foreclosures. Gross Domestic product is expected to be 2.8 percent and job growth will be 1.1 percent in 2008 after 2 million job gains in 2006. Inflation should remain under 3 percent. These are all good conditions for home buying. Further, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has doubled its loan volume in the last 12 months, and is on track to reach some 240,000 borrowers in 2007, including 80,000 refinancings by borrowers with troubled subprime loans, said Fannie Mae at the Regulatory Issues Forum.
NAR keeps me informed of the latest developments in the real estate market and here are some highlights from last week’s convention.
The NAR's newly appointed chief economist announced that while home prices are down almost two percent this year, many areas of the country including Salt Lake City and Austin, Texas, are seeing double-digit appreciation and other areas "from the Rocky Mountain states to Appalachia," have undervalued home prices.
NAR released the results of its 2007 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Typically released in late summer, this year the annual report found that for-sale-by-owner transactions remain at record lows at 12 percent, the same percentage as in 2006.
NAR announced that the Pending Home Sales Index for September rose 0.2 percent to a reading of 85.7 from an index of 85.5 in August. It was 20.4 percent lower than the September 2006 level of 107.6. “Even with relatively low fourth quarter sales, 2007 will be the fifth highest year on record for existing-home sales. The median existing-home price in 2007 will have fallen by less than 2 percent from an all-time high set in 2006,” Yun said. Managing Director of Public Affairs Lucien Salvant pointed out to Realty Times that the Pending Home Index is forward-looking and becomes irrelevant as soon as sales are reported, which is one reason he among other NAR leadership is frustrated with media who overplay negative statistics and discount favorable numbers in order to scare consumers.
NAR leadership, including outgoing President Pat V. Combs performed a spoof on the hit TV show CSI, "dispatching her trusted advisors" to find out why homebuyers are "staying on the fence" despite "solid U.S. economic performance. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, incoming President Dick Gaylord and others "reported" back that other national sales downturns were driven by broad economic problems, but not this year. Despite a "solid" economy, sales are slower but will still reach a fifth-year record, and home prices are remaining at near record highs. This suggests that the national media, misled "by a few vocal but misinformed analysts, have been painting the U.S. housing markets in the clutches of a meltdown, even though the facts paint a very different picture."
In addition, NAR launched a new campaign targeting buyers, urging them to get the facts. For example, markets are local, the small decline in home prices nationwide is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation, and that subprimes is only about 10 percent of loans but are 40 percent of current foreclosures. Gross Domestic product is expected to be 2.8 percent and job growth will be 1.1 percent in 2008 after 2 million job gains in 2006. Inflation should remain under 3 percent. These are all good conditions for home buying. Further, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has doubled its loan volume in the last 12 months, and is on track to reach some 240,000 borrowers in 2007, including 80,000 refinancings by borrowers with troubled subprime loans, said Fannie Mae at the Regulatory Issues Forum.
posted by Ken Calhoon at 7:34 AM
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