Monday, July 17, 2006

New Home Sales Up & Down

New home sales in the region are up and down. The good news is…. sales of new homes during the second quarter of this year are up 51 percent over the first quarter, according to the Gregory Group, a Folsom based research group that studies such. There were 3,124 new homes sold during the three-month period around our six-county area.

But new home sales were also down 25 percent from this time last year and builder’s price concessions are higher, cutting into their profit margins. Year to date new homes sales in El Dorado County are down 26 percent from last year while Sacramento is off 26 percent but Placer County is only down 3 percent in new home sales. Elk Grove is off 60 percent from this time last year, Folsom is off 11 percent, Roseville is down 16 percent, Yolo County is off 45 percent, Sutter County down 54 percent and Yuba County off 21 percent.

Although the average price concession from a builder has risen from $5,000 last year to $15,000 this year sales prices are holding. At the end of the second quarter, the median selling price of a new home in the region was unchanged from last year at $460,000. The area’s median high is in El Dorado Hills is at $767,000 and the median low is Yuba City at $343,000.

“The market is showing signs of life, showing sign of improvement,” said John Orr, president of the North State Building Industry Association. “The good news is it’s not continuing to move down,” said Greg Paquin, president of the Gregory Group. “It’s not a market that’s falling off a cliff or through the floor”. It may be a little early for optimism. This winter could see some median price declines as builders dump their remaining unsold inventory.

Over the last four years new home construction has averaged 15,500 new units a year in the region. During the first six months of this year there has been 5,000 sales and another 4,200 in some stage of construction. I predict the housing industry will finish the year under 10,000 new home sales. Most builders will also curtail their projected numbers for next year, build fewer homes upper end homes and fewer condos.

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