Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Interest rates

Last week’s announcement by the Federal Reserve to cur interest rates was a good sign for consumer loans and holders of adjustable rate mortgages. It was no help the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Interest rates on fixed loans actually increased after the Fed announced its interest rate cut. What’s up with that?

Initially, both Stocks and Bonds rallied on the comforting words from the Fed - but as Bond Traders analyzed the potential future impact of the Fed cut over the following days, they started selling off Bonds with both hands, causing fixed home loan rates to rise by .125 to .25%, actually higher than where they stood before the Fed Rate Cut. What happened?

Traders realized that a Fed Funds Rate cut could encourage increased spending by consumers and businesses, as borrowing costs will now be cheaper for Home Equity Lines of Credit, consumer loans like car loans and credit cards, and business loans as well.

Increased spending can translate into increased inflation in the long run - and inflation is bad news for Bonds. Bonds deliver a fixed rate of return, and the value of that return is eroded by inflation. So Bond Traders sold, the price of Bonds moved lower, and home loan rates moved higher as a result. Counterintuitive to many...but its reality, and now you understand what many do not - including much of the mainstream media.

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