Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Need help on Ballot

Well, I am glad to see this election come to an end regardless of the outcome. Why is it that political campaigns are exempt from the Federal Do Not Call Registry? This last week I received more phone calls from campaigns than from all other sources, which says something about the real estate market. I was on the phone with a client when Vicki picked up another incoming call from this one from the governor. She smiled as she asked me if I would like to put my client on hold and take the governor’s call. “No, tell the governor I will call him back and that I was on the phone with my very important client Gladys.” I yelled. I hope Gladys was impressed!

I suspect that the real estate market isn’t going to be affected if the Democrats take control of the House and or Senate. I remember 1994 during the Clinton years when the Democrats lost both branches to the Republicans. It didn’t turn out to be a significant event unless you were one of the Democrats who were replaced.
The most important elected position in this part of El Dorado County is the District Supervisor. We have been without one for the past year. Charlie Paine won four years ago (I voted for his opponent) and served two active years, one year part-time and moved out of the country a year ago. This is a difficult district in El Dorado County.

Of the two candidates running for County Supervisor Norm Krizl should win. He is the best qualified and a personal friend. Many times the most qualified person doesn’t win an election. Political campaigns are a lot like prospecting for clients. Sometimes the best-qualified agent doesn’t end up with the business. Many voters will make a decision based upon a slick commercial or slogan rather than on facts or experience. Somehow it all works or doesn’t, depending on your perspective on the workings of our government.

Vicki and I voted a week ago. Forty percent of voters now vote an absentee ballot. I suspect that one day we will all vote on the Internet or absentee. I don’t believe it’s wrong to abstain from voting on an issue or candidates if you don’t feel you have the knowledge to make the decision. We should make the effort to become so informed but there were a few judges on the ballot that I didn’t have a clue about. I figure I will let those more informed make the decision on whether to retain the judges or not.

So be sure to vote today and remember I am counting on you to make the right decisions especially on the few district judges.

Monday, November 06, 2006

2007 housing forecast

The latest forecast for the California housing market's reversal of fortunes jibes with a previous outlook predicting flat, rather than falling home prices in California for the next few years.e prices will slip only 2 percent, while sales will be off 7 percent, according to

In 2007, California homthe California Association of Realtors' "2007 California Housing Market Forecast". "The housing market clearly downshifted in 2006 from the record-setting sales and robust price gains of the last few years," said CAR president Vince Malta.

"The residential real estate market in 2006 was characterized by a gap between buyer and seller expectations. Sellers sensed that the peak of the market was approaching, yet still hoped to obtain the highest possible prices. Buyers' sense of urgency waned as the number of homes on the market grew and they took longer to identify and subsequently purchase a home," Malta added.

"We do not predict a recession, nor do we predict a substantial decline in average nominal home prices. This forecast is based on two arguments. There is not enough vulnerability in the usual sources of employment loss to create a recession, and the historical record suggests that average home prices do not usually fall without this kind of job loss," said economist Ryan Ratacliff, author of the Anderson Forecast "Soft Landing with Turbulence Ahead."
CAR pointed to unsustainable home price increases, related affordability concerns, rising energy costs and higher interest rates as the culprits responsible for undoing California's boom.

"Fixed-rate mortgages also hit and passed the psychological threshold of 6 percent, while adjustable rate mortgages passed 5 percent, ultimately causing a decline in affordability. Affordability concerns also will continue to constrain sales for many households in California throughout 2007, especially for first-time home buyers," said CAR vice president and chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young.
CAR also expects the greatest sales declines to come from the Central Valley, San Diego and Riverside/San Bernardino regions that were among the Golden State's biggest boom markets. That also holds true for several second-home markets, including the desert areas of Southern California and the Wine Country.
Anderson forecasters said California's housing market could fare worse should higher interest rates break household budgets, many of which remain intact with high-leverage, risky mortgages. Interest rates thus far have remained well off the 7 percent level forecasters predicted this year.